At first, Waifu’s team just looked like a PNW locals team. I expected it to be a typical Waifu team–just above average, and skating into playoffs off of Waifu’s own strength.

However, they’ve done a lot better than I expected. I believe the sole reason is the over-performance of ahmad7133x34, who has been suspiciously strong. I’ll just say it: my smurf radar has been alerted.

Sidebar: I don’t know why Dota doesn’t have AI-based smurf and account-sharing detection. All chess websites have multiple AI based detection systems, paired with a team of human enforcement. To me, I think Dota would be way easier to tackle. For example, way back in Warcraft 3, one of the simplest ways to catch people is that players had unique hotkeys.

N.B. — I think “innocent until proven guilty” (by civil standards) is a worthy principle. At the very least, I would expect the value of this player to be adjusted by the market next season.

___

For this preview, I’d like to briefly look at the lane matchups.

Lane 1: FTS, yolk vs. Waifu, Yungbuck. I think this lane is a wash. ForTheSwarm is an intelligent player who knows how to push the right buttons at the right times, and I always thought Waifu was an rd2l-rare mix of mechanically good, but also a quietly thinking player.

There’s a possibility that Waifu will go mid-lane, but I’m not expecting it. I think that configuration is weaker.

When Waifu played itachi during the season, they went 1-1, winning with Waifu safe, and losing with Waifu mid.

Round 1: draw

Lane 2: Zewqew vs. Ahmad

I think Ahmad looks stronger and more stable, but I’m sure Zewqew has his pride too.

Round 2: Advantage Waifu

Intermission: Interestingly, both teams have played against George’s Tiny (itachi’s team)
https://www.dotabuff.com/matches/6636767637
https://www.dotabuff.com/matches/6636811712
https://www.dotabuff.com/matches/6626598261

We await to see how the winner of this series deals with itachi.

Lane 3: Finite, Clare vs. xRyukx, Zoompa

Finite has been surprisingly versatile and stable this season. People say that if you hang out with 4 people who are X, you’ll be the 5th. I think Finite plays Dota all day with immortals or something, and perhaps it’s rubbed off. He fits into this team’s tri-core well, and has really been looking like a carry you can’t complain about.

I expect this lane to go swimmingly for team ForTheSwarm.

Round 3: Advantage ForTheSwarm

Wrap up: Waifu’s team needs Ahmad to show up and carry the tempo. If they can hold off team ForTheSwarm’s post-laning phase team-play, the longer game should favor them. “Holding off” sounds like an active action, but it should really be more about not giving opportunities.

For ForTheSwarm, I’m expecting Finite to not be pressured, and we’ll see what he does with it.

I like blogging, so sue me.

Lots of unrelated thoughts, so I’ll use a listicle format to give a semblance of structure.

1. Not respecting Toth Marci is a mistake.

He openly climbed ladder with Marci. You can’t block pick it, because your team isn’t good at it. I think banning Marci first phase is easy +expected value.

2. Banning Razor and Marci first phase is a reasonable try against Itachi’s team.

If you have first pick, opening with Razor is also reasonable, but I think Simple should’ve banned Marci.

If you planned on first picking Razor, was the Tiny ban necessary? I think it’s an inaccuracy.

3. I think targeting George is the wrong approach

It seemed reasonable to ban Tiny, from the past matches in the season. But I think George is clearly the 3rd core on this team. (A very good one, this is not a criticism!) AR and itachi keep tempo for the team. Game one was a good example.

Rather than let Toth have his hero and try to counter it, I think that tactic would be better tried against George.

If it were me, I would rack my brains trying to neutralize AR’s start.

4. AR is not a boomer-retiree-class player lol.

I heard one of the casters (won’t name names) say something that I think was really ignorant. He compared AR playing off-lane this season, with carry players switching to support when they get old.

AR will play any position, and he’ll play it better than you. He also has a wider hero pool than almost all of you. If he’s choosing to play with a few fashionable go-tos, this is a sign of a large hero pool, not a small one. In the early season, after the draft, when he was probably still enjoying dota and/or his team, he ran through many different heroes, such as Dark Seer, Doom, etc.

Also, in my opinion, off-lane is the most skilled position.

5. itachi took this match surprisingly seriously.

Depending on who you asked, some people thought this match was 50/50, but I thought itachi was the clear favorite. He didn’t underestimate the opponent though, and pulled out all the preparation and guns.

6. I liked the Magnus pick, and also how it was played.

With a Razor and a Drow, a more utility hero with cc is called for, if you’re trying to play more solid Captains Mode style and not pub-style, in my opinion. I never really thought Magnus had to have some melee teammate to buff. I liked the way Itachi chose to play it, fighting a lot, and going a blink first. I think this way of playing hasn’t been popular for awhile. It brought me back to ferrari_430 days. Starting to itachi fanboy.

Also “smh” at casters suggesting Reverse Polarity should be saved in an early game gank.

7. Please don’t let Tothtachi win XD

8. Barrel Rider, your bane looked pretty good :thumbsup:

9. Recap: First phase ban Marci, Razor. 2nd phase ban Invoker, Void Spirit. GG win game.

Arguably, valuing Razor so highly isn’t called for by the history, but I think it’s a good read.

“Value” refers to the amount a captain paid for a player, compared to the “fair value” of the player. See here for more information: https://abox.car.blog/2022/05/09/crouching-tigers-hidden-dragons/

There are two main outliers. Tokyo did unexpectedly well, and 2centz did unexpectedly poorly.

Tokyo’s dotabuff on the draft sheet is Divine 1 (https://www.dotabuff.com/players/54432298), but his dotabuff on the rd2l site is Immortal (https://www.dotabuff.com/players/126604881).

I think Tokyo’s carry performance has a lot to do with his team’s success this season.

If I recall, tzsyu was last season’s overall champion. Miyu also kind of just owns. https://rd2l.gg/seasons/6DOWZujwT/divisions/HJSzO_xoM/teams/XKWW4HCJ3mU

Conclusion

I think the data speaks for itself. In general, mmr is a good predictor of success (and it always has been, in rd2l). All the captains who drafted a “value” team made playoffs, except 2centz. All the captains who didn’t draft a value team missed playoffs, except Tokyo.

Why did I leave TheMantis team?

There were two primary reasons.

If people do not enjoy being with you, and you do not enjoy being with them, then why bother? Better to divorce, and they can find someone they like to be with.

To stick it out would be a very simple thing for me. That’s what I would have done in the past. I considered it a virtue to “finish what you started”. But what would be the point? Ideas of virtue are a false bondage. I wanted to go against my past programming and experiment with a different direction.

Even my dreams told me to quit. The only thing holding me back was guilt over letting Mantis down. So I asked for his permission to abandon. I also thought he might welcome a new player to freshen up the team dynamic. If he asked me to stay, I would have. But he didn’t hold me back. Perhaps he loves me more than I love him.

From Dom to Sub

I used to be the most domineering captain. I was an absolute authoritarian drafter, often drafting silently. Phantasmal used to warn people who joined the stacks that I would be anal about warding.

Early in the season, it occurred to me that experiencing this tyranny from the other side might be my karma. I consciously welcomed it, and made it my goal to accept my situation gracefully and not create new entanglements.

The Will to Power

There are almost always power struggles in any relationship. Almost everyone, no matter who he is, has his opinions and thinks everyone should listen to him.

In a Dota team environment, it’s almost amusing how the hierarchy sorts itself out. The most ferocious becomes the top Dog, and everyone else in turn oppresses those below.

For me, desiring to eliminate the ego, it presented an opportunity. In this muddy power struggle, I decided to try to become nothing. I deliberately gave almost no opinions.

For one, conflicting opinions just creates even more ugliness. It also gives people more of a target if they want to criticize you. I wanted to remain pure and outside of it. Secondly, I hadn’t played in 4months and was indeed the low mmr on the team. Third, I got to experience the feeling of being completely unvalued, and ordered about. I did it consciously, and still felt “minimized.” It gave me a new empathy for the low mmr players in rd2l.

I also realized quickly that I should stream for proof, like wearing a body cam for protection. I anticipated that at some point, someone would say something about me that I didn’t think was true.

Streaming also served as a sort of ego release, and diminished my desire to start arguments about who is right. I got this idea from watching Myco’s stream many seasons ago. I thought his captain scapegoated Myco, and Myco just quietly played his game. I think that’s the best response you can have, sometimes.

Reflecting on criticism

If someone criticizes you, the first thing you can do is examine if there’s any partial truth to it. If there is, you can thank him for revealing it to you. If there is no truth, then you can let it go.

For example, let’s say someone said I didn’t play any real offlaners. In my games with the team, I’ve played tidehunter, axe, centaur, nightstalker, underlord, sand king, as well as viper and lone druid.

In my pubs, I’ve run through almost all the offlaners to shake off the rust.

I also wasn’t drafting, and have been deliberately unopinionated.

So it is not true that I don’t play normal offlaners.

I may being playing badly, but what can I do…

5. Keeper of the Light

Old man who probably can’t get it up. Might be fun for age play/diaper fetishists, but not here.

4. Nature’s Prophet

Furion used to be a bad-ass. But these days the Nature’s Prophet feels too vanilla.

I think he’s kind of a “girly man” now, and not in the good way.

3. Beastmaster

Definitely great to snuggle with. Rexxar, or Rex, is a name you could get used to saying. When you’re feeling kinky, you could even call him Tsar.

I think you’d have to be into a Pocahontas lifestyle for this to work long term. Intellectuals would feel suffocated. Just enjoy the gym bunny physique as one of your poly relationships.

2. Lycan

I think you could have a really good bad-romance with the Lycan. Kind of the way girls pine for vampires, I think Lycan has the same dark, magnetic, lunar energy. He probably wouldn’t treat you right, but as the romantics know, you never feel so alive as when you’re suffering. You’ll probably end up with an alcohol problem.

1. Lone Druid

Lone druid was surely a hunk when he was younger. I imagine he must be some type of craftsman, like a swordsmith, who lives in the woods, practicing his trade. He’s been cultivating the Tao for years, and has hidden powers you can only imagine. Definite DILF.

__

Part 1: https://abox.car.blog/2021/09/29/male-waifu-ranking-pt-1-the-knights/

I saw a workplace article that I think can apply to Dota as well. Here are excerpts:

1. Announce your own success constantly

“Have you noticed how the people who seem to toot their own horn have an image problem? And, it’s not a good look. They tend to reveal their insecurities: look at me, I’m awesome!”

2. Talk smack about others

“Eventually, your coworkers will start to realize your bad-mouthing is a sign that you can’t control what you say….
Badmouthing destroys credibility because coworkers will wonder what other negative remarks you are making — especially about them.”

3. Play fast and loose with the facts

“It’s easy to pump up our egos and pretend we know what we’re talking about.”

4. Berate people endlessly

“They respect you for how you say it as well. Add a dose of humility and civility, and you’re credibility will go sky high.”

Link to full article: https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/373714

Warning: long, and covering multiple topics

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Jl2_-biDUWB2chWXTH5YeBw4_92V8YRcgsrz1NYxtjc/edit?usp=sharing

“Value” is the difference of actual cost and expected cost. So it’s really the inverse of value, but I didn’t make the official spreadsheet.

I think “value” is more useful to look at than “% value.” Remember that this value is directly derived from mmr. Percent difference in mmr isn’t as concrete as absolute numbers. For example, if you draft a 4500 player at the price of a 3000 player (what itachi paid for George), that difference in mmr is your vigorish.

This is one way that scaling down to “buck’s bucks” can mislead people. If you left the currency at mmr scale, I don’t think captains would misvalue people by 1000+ mmr.

I think the high mmr players were extremely overpriced. I don’t think anyone should’ve gone for over $300, and 10 people did! Ultragunner’s entire wallet was only $313.

Because of the misvaluation at the top, players in the 4k mmr range went at a bargain.

MMR isn’t everything, but it sure is the biggest thing.

___

Rather than make up some BS about teams where I don’t know anyone, I’ll just ramble some thoughts.

Team Ultragunner

Like everyone else, I secretly wanted to be on Ultragunner’s team. I just found all the sycophant-ing eye-roll-worthy, and didn’t want to participate in it. Plus, did Ultra draft anyone he said he would? XD

I think this team is incredibly strong. It does, however, look like a duo-core team and not a triple threat. But I don’t know the lower players, so we’ll see.

Waifu

While keeping my Ultragunner desires to myself, I did actually private message waifu, and got completely ignored. Welp…

Before my legend bracket days, I had played with and against Ultragunner, Waifu, etc, and I kind of harbored hopes that someone would remember me and use me. 知遇之恩

Sadge

Mantis

After Waifu ignored me, I messaged Mantis to test out the waters. I actually like playing with Mantis, so I’m happy to be drafted here, regardless of anything else. :blush:

itachi

itachi, like Ultra, says one thing and intends another. My drafting theory-craft blogs were attempts to even the playing field for lower mmr captains, but I think they only served as theoretical discussion for itachi, moca, and people. Backfired, oh well.

Very strong team. I like the triple threat, but they need to deliver. itachi x eli top rd2l rivalry all time. :joy:

Amane

Treyn, PooNaNi, and Kizu, should be another solid tri-core.

Happyhobo

If you need a case of high mmrs being screwed, it should be Happyhobo, and not Ultragunner or Waifu. I don’t think I’ve played with him before, but he seems genuinely nice, so I’ll cry injustice for him here.

So many players sandbagging, smurfing, etc, and the honest guy gets owned. Nice guys finish last. He went for $67 more than Ultragunner’s entire wallet. HELLO? If I were an admin, I would consider a max bid cap next season to protect our good men.

___

This is getting long so I’m going to wrap it up.

Cerys

Good luck to you, and remember to enjoy your time.

ForTheSwarm

Probably pretty strong too, shoutout.

AwfulWaffLE

Nice guy, shoutout.

wheres the leak man

dark horse of the 2nd tier teams.

simple

keeping an eye out. not familiar with simple, but could definitely be a contender.

Postscript

When I woke up this morning, I had an intuitive flash that Mantis drafted Treebeard as punishment for adjusting him.

Mantis is also capable of playing his cards close, and waiting for the long game. Don’t underestimate him. This is also a hidden dragon…

Don’t let these players go cheaply!

oof/AR – Professional hitman. 2 seasons ago, AR and Kende owned EST-Sun season 24. Having revealed themselves, they packed their bags and moved to PST-Sun, and played the same trick again.

Don’t be befooled! This is a previously, and still, immortal-level player. And not one of those bad ones, but an actually good one.

Kizu – The most rigged stand-in you have ever seen in your LIFE. And EVERYONE knows it, and somehow allows it. When a stand-in is needed, the in-crowd immediately goes here.

Elidoto2 – Some people say to never bet on a man over 30. You want to bet on a young gun like Eli, full of testosterone and chutzpah.

These are the major value players I see. Please share your own. Don’t try to save them for yourself, thinking they’ll end up on your team. They probably won’t.

No thick value allowed, only thin value.

Subtitle: How I would approach the draft

Disclaimer: This is untested, and I take no blame for anyone’s draft doing a snafu.

Pre-draft: Start from the Greg’s wonderland tab in the draft sheet. (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18iHy_u9lnnF6Ap8p-zpVUypcr0Nka8muLCQ6Ye4bVWE/edit#gid=525877618)

The “Expected Cost” column gives the “fair value” of each player. From there, make value adjustments in your own scout sheet:

– The absolute highest mmr players tend to be worth more than their stated value.
– Core players are worth more than supports, at high mmrs.
– East coast players might need a negative adjustment (server disadvantage)
– Personal adjustments

Early in the draft: Your ideal situation is to have captains spend money on overrated players, and players that you don’t want.

Nominate players who are popular, that you don’t want, and are expensive.

Your goal is to have other captains (over)spend too much money. This will increase your purchasing power, and increase the value of your money.

You can and should “market-make” a little. This means that you can bid on players if the current bid is too low. This is especially true if it’s for a high mmr player. If it’s for a low mmr player, I would just let them have it, unless you are a high mmr captain.

In the middle of the draft: Now it’s time to go aggressively shopping.
Some common-sense observations:

– You will get last picks at least for free. There aren’t really any “booby picks” you need to avoid (such as a 100 mmr player).
– Any money leftover at the end is “wasted value,” that you would prefer to have used earlier, if you had known it would be left over.
– If you save your money to the end and get your choice of leftover pickings… your team is probably not going to be good and you will probably not spend all your money by the end.

Therefore, in the middle of the draft, I would plan to start getting into bidding wars for players.

Now, you SHOULD nominate the players you actually want. While other captains are waiting for the players they want, try to sneak in the player you want who is flying under the radar.

Should you buy your expensive players first or cheaper players first?

I would buy the larger purchases first. Then you can use whatever money you have leftover to get the best possible final players you can, maximizing your value and ensuring you spend out.

Exception: If you have low mmr players that you would really like to play with, try to buy them early in the draft. Later in the draft, they are more likely to be stolen from you by someone just trying to use his money, but who wouldn’t really care much about the player early on. After buying your friend, you can then spend your remaining money getting the best possible players.

What if everyone is nominating middle-mmr players instead of high mmr players first?

This scenario seems unlikely, but is a tricky case. Your best bet is to play a value-game. Bid on players if they’re currently undervalued. You may have to remain flexible and just draft whatever is dealt to you.

Late game: By now, hopefully you’ve spent most of your money and gotten some good picks. If you have quite a bit of money leftover, see how much money other people have, and try to get the best players you can.

If you have a little leftover, just keep aggressively bidding on any decent player. You’re trying to not be stuck at the end, fighting with other people when not much is left.

____

The simplest way the draft can play out, is if high mmrs are bid on first. Then you cannot really make a mistake, unless you severely overpay. If low mmrs are bid on first, you could be making a mistake, even if you don’t “overpay.”

Summary

• When in doubt, focus on value.
• In the middle of the draft, it’s time to start spending.
  

A theory of monetary distribution and captain handicapping. I won’t go into specific drafting strategies.

I’ve never participated in an auction draft before. This is all just theory. Maybe there will be some math/logical problems.

Assumption/simplification #1: Every point of mmr is equal. For example, a 3000 + a 4000 is the same as a 2500 + a 4500. This is another way of saying that, if the mmr average of teams are the same, then the strengths are the same.

Therefore, the goal of a draft is just to acquire the most mmr.

We also assume that, each point of mmr has the same “monetary value.” For now, we ignore that this monetary value may change as the draft progresses.

Assumption #2: The lowest rated player must go for 0 monetary value.

Simplification #3: We ignore for now, that you can only draft 4 players. Since we’re not going into specific draft strategies, it shouldn’t matter.

With the above assumptions, we can assign a monetary value to each player in the pool.
The lowest rated player will be worth 0. His mmr will be our “floor.” For other players, their values will be their mmr in excess of the floor.

Khillasaurus is the lowest player at 1960 mmr. He is worth $0. inkognito at 6600 mmr will be worth $4640.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19z0FSZ0lOI2snixs9AmuufHdUZPrxTpa7Jm5a0ilM90/edit?usp=sharing

The total value in the 56 players in the pool then, is $125727.

Divided equally among 14 captains, each player would have $8980.5 to spend. For now, assume the captains are all equal mmr.

If all players are drafted at their fair value, equal teams will be produced. (This ignores a lot of nuances/strategies that come up in real drafting. I think they’re okay to ignore for the current purposes of assigning monetary value.)

What if captains are not equal?

My idea is to treat the captains as dummy teams who have already drafted themselves at fair value.

Step 1: Add the captains to the player pool, to find the new “total value” of everyone.

Step 2: Divide the new total (169131) equally into 14 teams = ~12081

Step 3: Subtract the value of the captains, having them “draft themselves.” This produces the starting money.

Step 4: Convert to Buck’s Bucks, keeping Mantis at 664 starting money.

Surprise! We end up with the same values….

Conclusion: I currently believe the handicapping format to be fair, inasmuch as mmr is fair.

Maybe we’ll do a follow up looking into draft strategies, edge cases, exploiting inefficiencies, etc.

For captains: I think you need to pay attention to the “Greg’s wonderland” tab on the spreadsheet.