For Smashe, with love

WARNING: this is going to be hard to follow.

Let’s run a mock draft, using last season’s sheet. I’m going to roleplay Zend, one of the low mmr captains.

Assumption: The goal of auction draft is to collect the most mmr you can.

Auction money, and player value, can be viewed as substitute for mmr. (This is just how it’s mathematically derived.) The total player value is equal to the total money distributed to captains.

If every player goes for his value, and all the captains spend all their money, then the draft ends theoretically fairly, with the teams balanced.

Therefore, getting “value” on a player by purchasing him cheaply, can be seen as getting more mmr than your fair share.

HOWEVER, note well: Any money left over at the end, becomes worthless. So while using “value” as a proxy for winning the draft makes sense to an extent, it’s predicated on spending all your money.*

*If every captain spends all his money, all the value and un-value should add up to 0. One captain’s value is at other captains’ expense. It is zero sum.

Still with me Smashe? Let’s get into the mock draft.

Let’s say that every captain except you, overvalues all the players by $50.**

Based on what you learned from BoX-posting, let’s say that you are going to refuse to pay more for players than what they’re “worth.” You start with $539, only less than Mantis.

Let’s see what happens in the draft.

** We are ignoring the fact that player values change, as the total money remaining changes. This simplification doesn’t affect our illustration.

The captains happily “overpay” for players, as long as they have money, while you sit on the sidelines.

Finally, when it gets to Zoompa, you find a price worth paying. You pay 105 each for the next 4 players, just enough to outbid PooNaNi.

You spent 105 * 4 = $420, to get $469 worth in players, a $49 value. Winning!?

But your rightful total was $540, and you left $120 unspent.

Terrible!

Okay, so what if we improve our strategy, in hindsight, and spend the $120 earlier.

Let’s spend $225 and take PiNGdingDONG from Clare.

We’re doing better, but still fell short of our $540 rightful value. Oy vey.

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Conclusion: It’s hard to exploit the draft as a low mmr captain. This is because leftover money isn’t worth anything.

Higher mmr captains will have more chance to “win” the draft.

If this post doesn’t make sense, consider reading my season 26 write-up first.

Standings: https://rd2l.gg/seasons/8Xlg5xZDw/divisions/HJSzO_xoM/standings

Questions:

1) Why did HappyHobo do so poorly? https://rd2l.gg/seasons/8Xlg5xZDw/divisions/HJSzO_xoM/teams/Oz7mWq3Uaz

Did they disband too early? Keep in mind, he paid pennies on the dollar for ping. His ancient carry, Tiger, stood in for Mantis in their playoff upset over Tokyo (who was missing himself, though).

2) What can we take-away from what happened to Zombie/Polo?

https://rd2l.gg/seasons/8Xlg5xZDw/divisions/HJSzO_xoM/teams/JkDYzlTbj

My personal opinion is that both these teams disbanded too early, instead of trying to figure out what works best for their teams. I don’t think they were the weakest teams in the pool.

Of course.. even if you are the weakest team… there’s no need to disband early if the vibe is fine.

We back.

The nectar of captaining in auction draft has been alluring, and I’ve wanted to taste it. So I’m back for probably my last season. (My first was season 8.)

Topic: If you mention a player a lot, can you cause his draft value to go up? Does the advertising principle of familiarity, apply here?

I think it does. I think it would be an interesting experiment to try to manipulate some players, in this way.

Is it ethical? Unanswerable. Is it against the rules? I don’t see how. If I disclose what I’m doing, can I sleep soundly? I think so.

Suppose someone thinks that the draft value will only be raised by positive advertising, but negative advertising will have the opposite effect.

My gut feeling is to disagree, on principle — all most advertising must be beneficial.

For example…

On the polarization of public opinion:

Suppose your advertising causes most captains to devalue a player. But if only two captains increase their valuation of a player, the result in auction draft is that the player will be more expensive.

What isn’t your cup of tea, may very well be someone else’s! (Birds of a feather flock together.)

In non-auction drafts, all it takes is one captain to like a player, and his draft position may go forward!

Discussion?

By the way, if you don’t want to play with me (or if you want to?), let me know…

Big Lou’s Smoke Shack (Tøkyø)

I’m with Scrub. Player, who last season newly joins and climbs to Immortal, this season drafts his new friend who immediately climbs to immortal. HMMMM

The name works on a lot of levels. I think Lou is the aforementioned friend? Smoke Shack seems refer to smoked meats (Barbecue), and there are a bunch of people with food names on the team. (Bakerboy, Saltpork). There’s also smoking in the Dota 2 video game.

The team logo is pretty cool too. I award 10/10 to this team name/logo.

Free Gunnar (gronaldo44)

Who is Gunnar and why does he need to be freed? Are we talking about Ultragunner? or “pro” player gunnar? Is it a double entendre?

God Save The Queen (Clare ❤ Teresa)

Do you get bonus points, or a penalty, for an (un)timely Queen name?

Suggested rename: God Save King William

Foebe Phighters (Effjai)

Googling Phoebe Fighters: https://the-next-genertion-of-charmed-ones.fandom.com/wiki/Advanced_Combat

Or is it a Foo Fighters reference?

Doesn’t work for me.

My Little Cow (DoomCow33)

Meh, when will this arc end.

Pony Pals (MGHappyhobo)

Again? meh.

Vivacious Vagrants. Bitchin’ Bums. Drifting Drifters.

THE HENTAI GAME 100% MARCI AHEGAO ACHIEVEMENT CLUB (Vuvuzela Virtuoso Hans Rudolph)

The in game banners are A+. Team name is a little too signature-vuvu over-the-top.

Did they have a stand-in week 2?

NA’s Last Hope (キZend)

Again? Really? Zend me.

smacktrickz (smacktrickz)

Random name generator: trickz or treatz

Coin Flip Enjoyers (djconrad)

B for turning your homework in. One of the better names in this pitiful season.

BurraBjornCerysRyan+1 (Burrahobbit)

Dead on arrival.

Good effort on the logo. What’s the original from?

TheJoMamas (ZombiesExpert )

No. How about TheNoMamas

AUTISM KILLS (TheMantis)

Awkward. Is it possible Mantis is “autistic” the same way he’s “gay”?

Shirtless Sirs Slinging Secret Sauce (YungBuck)

What’s the secret sauce

chraos knights (Chraos)

obvious and kind of boring. How about spice it up:
1001 Chraos Knights.

PooNaNi (PooNaNi)

Random name generator: Poonani Biryani

Kisses is so cool. Of the boomers I know in rd2l, I think he’d be the coolest dad. UWU

Gachi is so cool. He’s like a neet, except with a job, and has his shit together.

“Amar”/PooNaNi is so cool. I love names with a’s in them. I think it’s level-jumping to call people by their names, without actually knowing them like that, but since he changed his discord/rd2l name to Amar, I think it’s an invitation. He’s just so cool like that.

Charkhil is so cool. It’s so awesome to see him enjoying what life has to offer.

Cerys is so cool. She’s so confident in her unconfidence. You look great in dresses.

Burrahobbit is so cool. It’s great to see how she navigates her way in the ocean of life.

Vuvu is so cool. He’s like a cool version of an internet moderator.

Hanmingzyy is so cool. He’s become a meme, but in a loving way. The 6 degrees of separation between people go through him.

Smashe is so cool. I love his positive energy. I think it’s so funny, the way someone blocked him, because he’s actually so positive.

Zoompa is so cool, and everyone knows it. I love how he’s just living an adventurous, full life. If he has any hidden demons I hope life fulfills him.

You’re doing fine too! Nothing is that serious, take it easy.

It is impossible for someone to be happy, who has not accepted himself.

You seek the love and acceptance externally. For awhile, you think you are happy. But the anxiety and darkness are always lurking underneath.

Your mother did not accept you. Your teacher didn’t accept you. Society doesn’t accept you. Naturally, you’ve been conditioned to not accept yourself.

But once you learn to accept yourself, joy will blossom.

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An artistic reenactment of the draft.

Starting with ones you can’t really find in the San Francisco Bay Area, but otherwise, in no particular order.

I haven’t been to Taiwan in a long time, so it’s surely changed some.

胡椒餅 Hujiao bing, Pepper Bun

Raohe Street Night Market is where you get this.

On the topic of night markets, Raohe isn’t a priority. Shilin Night Market is the biggest and best, by far.

And Keelung Temple Night Market is also worth a visit, for the foodie.

牛舌餅 Cow’s Tongue Pastry

This used to be more common, decades ago. Now, the only place you can probably find it is the Shilin Night Market, if it’s still there. It’s a sweet, chewy pastry. The name refers to the shape.

車輪餅 Imagawayaki

Taiwan is heavily influenced by Japan. These “tire pastries” can be found in various spots, but the biggest selection of flavors used to be in XiMenDing.

奶油螃蟹 – Butter-steamed Crab

Now, they aren’t the Dungeness crabs we get on the west coast of North America, but it’s really good. Find this at the Keelung Temple Market.

鮮肉湯圓 – Savory TangYuan

The sweet TangYuan are ubiquitous, but savory ones can be found in Taiwan during the Winter.

藥燉排骨 – Medicine-braised short ribs

There are also lamb versions.

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By the way, Taiwanese vendors often overcharge tourists. I would exercise street smarts, or just happily let them fleece you a few extra bucks.

Haggling is expected at night markets for clothing. I often overpaid for things, only to find the same items on sale at Target, 2 years later, for less than I paid.

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Tshuah-ping – shaved ice

You can find this stateside, but it’s not as good, or as cheap.

蚵仔麵線 – Oyster Vermicelli

This is really good, but it’s often served with intestine. Just eat the noodles and not the intestine.

米粉湯 – Rice vermicelli soup

Near Ximending, get this at 鴨肉扁 The Duck House (Goose) https://goo.gl/maps/STo8EUmALjmuhZg9A

Get a bowl of the rice vermicelli soup, and a plate of goose. The prices have gone up, but this restaurant has been around for at least half a century probably.

Fried rice noodles 炒米粉

The Hsinchu region of Taiwan is known for their super-thin rice noodles. You can find fried rice noodles everywhere. Taiwanese will top it with the same braised-minced pork that is served on top of rice.

Actually, the picture of the rice noodle soup above has noodles that are too thick. They should be the thin ones.

肉羹湯 – Rougengtang

“Geng1” is another word for soup, that typically denotes something thicker. Taiwanese like to adjust the taste by adding some black vinegar.

肉丸 – “Meatball”

This Taiwanese “meatball” is stuffed inside a chewy, starchy shell, served with a sweet sauce.

割包 – Gua bao

Might not be easy to find. But this thing is so good it’s started making its way to New York, etc. The best one used to be sold in front of a restaurant near National Taiwan University, on summer nights. But it wasn’t there last time I went.

蚵仔煎 – Oyster omelette

Now, this isn’t my favorite. But it’s one of the most famous street foods. While you can get it in the US, it’s never the same.

You can find it everywhere.

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For an experience, I recommend taking the Gondola from near the Taipei Zoo, up to MaoKong. Enjoy the afternoon, have some tea and Mung Bean cookies (綠豆糕), and come back down at sunset.

滷肉飯 – minced pork rice

Obviously, you need to eat this while you’re in Taiwan. I suggest eating wherever is popular with the locals.

臭豆腐 – Stinky Tofu

It’s an acquired taste for sure. The scent from the frying oil will linger on your clothes.

芋圆 – Taro Balls

You can get this in the Bay Area now. But for a trip, go to JiuFen and eat them there.

By the way, JiuFen has a mask shop that I always regretted not going in to. You had to pay to go in, so I skipped it. But it was just like a mask shop from Ocarina of Time or Majora’s Mask or something. Blew my mind that it had a real life equivalent.

生煎包 – ShengJianBao

These will be good anywhere.

蛋餅 – Egg pancake

I’d get this from a street vendor in the morning, or a breakfast joint.

Get some soy milk too.

抓餅 – Zhuabing

Taiwanese bakeries are 10/10 awesome. My favorite, that you can’t find at home, is one filled with potato salad.

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OMG I could really keep going on and on. TL;DR: Halfcast, just eat the local cheap eats. Why are you going to Asia and eating in fancy restaurants :Joy:

Let’s consider two possibilities:

1. Supports do not contribute as much to the team’s success as core players.

This was the argument of CRAP, who drafted a team this season that 0-2’d Cerys, before mercifully being forced to disband by great adminship.

While I agree with his idea in general, I think it was presented in a pop-science way. Like when you read an article by a journalist, paraphrasing an “expert” for the hoi polloi, about a topic in which you specialize.

The belief that core players contribute more is also already held by basically everyone, except a few. So CRAP’s theory was akin to telling everyone what they already think, to critical acclaim.

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But why do support players not contribute as much?

If matchmaking works, and if it only uses mmr, then shouldn’t a support player’s mmr reach a number that corresponds to his game-winning ability, just as much as a carry player’s mmr does? (Or does the matchmaker differentiate between core and support mmrs when balancing?)

In other words, shouldn’t the lower-contribution of supports already be “baked in” to the mmr?

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By the way, by CRAP’s formula, you would put all your mmr in the mid-lane, if you were able. Indeed, he says:

“In auction draft, your single biggest goal should be to fill those top 2 positions with the highest performing players you can.”

Vel-polo put that theory to the test this season, and Polo5885 was the only high mmr captain to not make playoffs, as ForTheSwarm noted.

2. A second idea, which is much more interesting to discuss, is that the ideal mmr distribution on the team puts more mmr in core roles. —

• Not because mmr is not accurately reflecting winning-ability (which I mildly disagree with),
• and not because core players contribute more (which I agree with),
• but because mmr in core is better for strategic reasons.

Let’s briefly examine, and the reader can go into detail as an exercise on his own.

We’ll start with with two teams, and all the players have 5000 mmr. Every lane is a stalemate.

Let’s say, on a fundamental, theoretical level, that our goal in Dota is to win lanes. Let’s try to distribute our mmr to accomplish that.

Scenario 1: We’ll take 1000 mmr from the offlane, and give 500 to our mid, and 500 to our safelane.

Now, our offlane loses, 9000 mmr vs. 10,000. Our midlane wins, 5500 vs 5000. Our safelane wins, 10,500 vs 10,000.

Both teams still have the same amount of mmr, but now we win the lanes.

Scenario 2: We’ll again start with everyone having 5000 mmr. Let’s say that we want to help our mid player win his lane, because we correctly think mid has an outsize impact on the game.

Crudely, let’s take a 5000 mmr player away from the safelane, and he’ll secure the rune and gank mid.

Now our safelane is losing (5000 vs. 10,000), but our midlane is winning (10,000 vs. 5000). If the losses and gains were equal, we’d say it’s a good trade-off, because mid is more important.

But perhaps, to swing a lane, 5000 mmr is overkill and weakens the abandoned lane too much. Let’s say 3000 mmr is sufficient.

Now our safelane is (7000 on the carry vs. 10,000), and the roamed midlane is (8000 vs. 5000).

Scenario 3: Starting from the end of Scenario 2, let’s say the opposing offlane matches our idea. They will send a 2500 mmr support to roam.

Now, our safelane is (7000 vs. 7500), losing. Our roamed midlane is (5000 + 3000 vs. 5000 + 2500), perhaps with an edge.

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For brevity, I’ve limited myself to a few examples. I hope you found it stimulating.

For my friends, a short autumn playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL41FGYc9Pm4eI5v_RB7vwXDCbpStuNcjb

In part one, I talked about the offlaners. AR prefers to play more like a semi-carry, and ForTheSwarm prefers to play more tempo-oriented team heroes.

When their teams employ a different strategy, it can looked at as a deviation from the “comfort” strategy.

itachi

Although his profile is private, or he’s playing on another account, I think the heroes he’s shown in the season so far give an accurate picture of how he’s playing right now.

With AR playing more “carry heroes”, itachi prefers tempo-controllers like Void Spirit, Invoker, and Puck. The games where itachi has played harder carries like Shadow Fiend have not been convincing.

Heroes like Necrophos, and even Ember and Storm Spirits, may come out. Otherwise, I don’t think fringe picks from itachi are notable. (Fringe picks from AR, are a different story.)

Barrel Rider has looked comfy on Snapfire. It’s his most played eSports hero, sitting at 70% win rate.

It’s hard to ban the low mmr support. But ForTheSwarm’s team likes to pick Undying, and the Undying-Snapfire dynamic could be a small subplot. Statistically, the matchup favors Snapfire. In absolute terms, Undying has a higher win rate.

Bristleback

They say never to tell a man his tell. I have a sense that itachi is hoping to pick Bristleback this series. Even without any reads, he already showed it against Simple, but he’s probably hoping it will fly under the radar. I don’t think ForTheSwarm would miss it though.

Speaking of ForTheSwarm, he’s been playing lots of heroes, including carries, and including Bristleback.

He’s first picked Razor three times in the last month., and he’s been playing the hero in officials for months. Block-picking with a Razor/Tiny open could be an interesting plan against itachi. One of the bigger anticipations this match is how Razor will be prepared for by both teams.

Draft Spotlight:

This is one of the more interesting drafts of the season. This team can throw you some curveballs.

Zewqew

Pretty standard mid player (which is really not so standard at all). Wide pool, with some currently fashionable go-tos, and some cards hidden up his sleeve.

Yolksoup

I think she’s the MVP of the team this season. Enabling the cores, playing solidly, and making some plays. Remember, she only went for 75.

It’s hard to pick out a spot to target her. I might consider letting ForTheSwarm have Dragon Knight (which might flex mid), and banning the support Skywrath instead. Against a Dragon Knight, you know the enemy. Even though I think ForTheSwarm’s game plan looks less organized when he’s playing something like Visage or Death Prophet, sometimes it’s still easier to plan for the enemy you know.

But what about her support Tiny?

Team itachi has some things to plan for.

Clare might be the least valuable player on the team, going for a whopping 160. I’ve only seen one person feed more on Clockwerk. I’m also not convinced by the support Alchemist, but they’ve won twice with it.

Clare did however, get them Zewqew, to replace a $65 player. So he’s valuable in that way? :Package deal:

(You flame the ones you love)

The Finite/AR lane matchup is probably the most important dynamic of the match. The struggle to get an advantage, or prevent one, could very well decide the game. I expect ForTheSwarm could have an edge over George, and if Finite/Clare can hold off AR/toth, that might allow them to come out ahead of the laning phase with a good game position. If AR manages to snowball, ForTheSwarm’s advantage may not be enough.

And of course, both mid players will be trying to swing things for their teams.

But I expect both teams to spend the most :thinking: about what to do in this lane.

In yesteryears, it might’ve been good to try to match ForTheSwarm against AR’s lane. This way, the off-lane could check the opposing off-lane, and Finite could be expected to have an advantage. But these days it’s kind of hard to set up, and it’s not really done I guess.

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I’m tired of writing, GL HF.

Bonus pic for my readers

不怕不识货，就怕货比货
Don’t worry if you don’t know the value of something; you will know it by comparison.

First I’d like to take a look at a few different offlaners this season.

ZombiesExpert

The original meaning of “core” was synonymous with carry, and not just any hero with farm priority.

ZombiesExpert is my favorite offlaner in the division. He’s the only one who plays in the classical spirit of the position: Left unchecked, he will become the 3rd carry, and your entire position will be a shambles. If you want to know how to play Spirit Breaker or Beastmaster, you need not look anywhere else. Just watch ZombiesExpert replays.

MGHappyHobo

HappyHobo, by mmr, is the highest offlaner, and he was the most expensive player in the draft. But his offlane can be compared to Toth’s Marci. Yes, it’s real. Yes it’s worth something. But it’s not your one-stop shop.

AR

AR may be playing in the offlane, but he’s playing like a pubstar midlaner. He wants to pressure the opponent, and then snowball the game. He’s not trying to play a utility hero, and he’s not trying to just draw the lane for a team-composition advantage later.

Now, this may just be because of the team dynamics. This might just be what works for them. But this “win lane and semi-carry” context should be kept in mind when analyzing the whole team.

Heroes to watch out for: Razor, Death Prophet, Timbersaw, Visage.

ForTheSwarm

ForTheSwarm is also a “classical” offlaner, but in a very different style. He wants to play for the team, providing post-laning phase push, team fight, initiation, tempo.

Watching ForTheSwarm replays is like reading a manual. You just want to know how a thing works.

Some players save ability points, because they don’t know if they might need to skill a different one in the moment. ForTheSwarm just skills, because he knows he won’t need it. For example, I was watching his Nightstalker, and he just skills the passive, not bothering with the silence early on. And if you reflect on it, this is correct: just eat any opposing abilities. It’s similar to how in some past patches, we didn’t like making bkb in pubs. Just eat the abilities.

And then when Nightstalker hits 6, use your ultimate and points in passive and dive. You won’t feel enlightened, watching ForTheSwarm replays, like you do when you watch ZombiesExpert. But you will feel that it’s very textbook.

Heroes to watch out for: Nightstalker, Dragon Knight.

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Understanding the different offlane styles of these players is the foundation for understanding the strategy of the teams.

It is not that these players do not, or cannot, play other heroes and styles. But for the teams they’re playing with this season, these are the dominant themes I see.