Burgeoning PhoneThrone.zone – weird last round dive, so no, unless there’s something rigged going on.

toth – don’t really know them, not expecting much. ban clock.

Newbycakes – staylin isn’t enough, no.

Danny – of the elite rd2l gamers, treyn is only okay, in this reviewer’s opinion. of the value mid-laners, deadprez seemed to have lost some luster last season. so no.

Diaspora – I think anbokr is as value as it gets, gachi is great. The wildcard? for me is Took. I’m expecting this team to be at least decent.

PrinceMeerkat92 – Despite some decent last picks, the mmr on this team still ended up on the low side. Not expecting much.

TheMantis – The top two mmrs prefer playing support. Not a good sign.

Ana is back – autodrafted my friend b0rt? if this team does well, scal must be a god or something else rigged is going on. Not expecting much.

Ghost – Pressure might be good, not familiar with him. Overall expecting average.

Sugoi-Chan – Don’t know them, not expecting much.

spidez – Do know them, not expecting much.

StonedSpirit – Not super familiar, but cautiously optimistic.

mck – Not expecting much, low mmr average too. Editor’s note: Not Detected xD was Polo5###’s captain last season.

Mediocre/Mason – Unless Mason is as sandbagged as staylin used to be, not expecting much. Probably below average in the end.

bsvhsvj – I think this team’s results will reflect bsvhsvj’s own value. Anyone’s game.

Gracious Papi – Hoping to be pleasantly surprised. Has potential.

Runewhore – Curious to see. Unknown captain.

wgod – Same as above.

Vuvuzela Virtuoso Hans Rudolph – Awkward role distribution.

BoX – Expecting above average. I think my team is pretty good, but I know I don’t plan on putting a lot of effort into dota.

dooby moogey – Don’t know them, but expecting above average.

Forest Bear – Week 0 opponent, better not jinx.

mid or courier adventure – ink curse, despite the high mmr average. Expecting drama of some sort.

ForTheSwarm – Friend stack, mmr average ended up high. Power of friendship, combined with raw mmr, I’m expecting above average.

velvelvel – Fallen was on my radar, but the finished team doesn’t excite me.

itachi – If you ask me for my opinion, I don’t think itachi is god-tier, neither a matured player, but he does stomp the mid lane and then the game sometimes. They also have the raw mmr average, on top of the sandbagging. DoomCow33 seems to be on the up-and-up as well. All in all, I’d watch this spot.

ChowMains – With the 659 pick, I think ChowMains will end up mid again. Expecting average to above average, doubt top tier.

Ar – It will probably turn into the AR show, expecting above average.

Polo5885 – I was also looking at ZombiesExpert. The word cloud showed some fa**** bombs, but it is a trendy word after all. I think they’ll be at least average.

Hidden Fist – not feeling it, good luck skater

Nera – I’m not familiar with Nera

sssst – don’t know these people

Elidoto2 – sad to say, I think eli got the short end of the adjustment stick wars due to admin bias. The tri-core does look like it has potential though, with 3 gamers.

NO! – Joric went too late. Overall, I think the team still looks like an uphill struggle.

polo – Not feeling it

Cuzi – I think this will be the team that surprises everyone.

waifu – Ended with a high average mmr, but will probably be the usual average waifu team. Playoffs cut-off team.

Ultragunner – Somehow Ultragunner AGAIN gets his dream team, drafting last. How does he do it.

MMR is not created equally. In RD2L, it is accepted that high mmr cores are worth more than high mmr supports. What if we drafted with a strategy that maximizes the mmrs of our cores? With rd2l’s new mmr floor, worrying about having to pick a 100-mmr player is a thing of the past.

Here’s what the current PST-Sun player pool looks like, not including captains:

Surprisingly, even with the mmr floor, the lower end of the pool still ‘falls off’ instead of continuing linearly. (I did assign the 3 non-calibrated players to the lowest mmr in the pool.)

Let’s say our captains are core players, and decide to maximize the value of their first two picks. Let’s assume all the higher mmr players are core players. Let’s say captains follow a strategy of taking the highest mmr available. Here’s what the initial captain list looks like, from lowest to highest. Between the lowest (toth) and highest (ultragunner), there is a difference of “23 badges.”

After 1 pick, you really cannot stop the highest mmrs from having the best “top-two.”

After two rounds, it’s clear that you cannot stop the high mmr captains from having the best “top 3.” There isn’t much any captain could unilaterally do differently to significantly improve his position after two rounds. There is now a difference of “9 badges” between the highest and lowest.

Having maximized our first two picks, let’s continue with the “pick highest available” strategy.

After three rounds using the “pick highest available” strategy, the teams are starting to become more even. Other than the highest captains, everyone is within 1-2 badges. Highest and lowest have a difference of 4.7. Look what happens in the fourth round:

After 3 picks, the teams were more or less even, but the remaining player pool is not equivalently even. After the last pick, the difference between the highest and lowest grows to 6.3, and the team rankings reverse.

---

We made an unrealistic assumption and didn’t include high mmr supports. Let’s say we put them back in.

If everyone still drafts core players first (because we believe core players are more important and “worth their mmr”), then in the 3rd round, the lower teams (which are mostly lower captains still) will get the first pickings of high mmr supports.

Let’s say the highest mmr captains break ranks, and pick the high mmr supports that others left behind. Since they get to take a pick every round, even if they go last, they could build up an mmr lead that will remain through to the end. This is especially true since we have no 100 mmr players now.

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If you found this interesting or helpful, then I’d like to take payment. I’d like to know your Hogwarts house. You can do the sorting hat test at https://my.wizardingworld.com/sorting-hat after logging in. It takes about 5 minutes.

Feel free to join my discord too https://discord.gg/M8wVpJh and I’ll tag your house.

Good luck everyone.

Tired of waiting for “Will” or whatever he goes by.

If you want love, we’ll make it.

Final standings: https://rd2l.gg/seasons/Bk7IiVM0C/divisions/HJSzO_xoM/standings
I did my power ranking based on name lengths of players. The shorter the names, the higher I ranked them. I fully expected to do better than at least one person, but to my surprise, my ranking did the worst. My ranking performed about what you would expect if you were to rank randomly.

So my short name hypothesis appears to not hold water in RD2L (or there is a problem with the methodology).

Sharingan was the best by far. Congratulations.

Sharingan – 110 (3 correct placements)
♂K[A]livunkka♂ – 142 (1 correct placement)
Burrahobbit – 145
Clare – 156 (2 correct placements)
MGHappyHobo – 167
BoX – 196

https://rd2l.gg/seasons/Bk7IiVM0C/divisions/HJSzO_xoM/teams/3iVn46kKd

CommanderSanchez has close to the ideal Healthy Mental Attitude™. It’s like going to a party where you’re kind of new. Your attitude is largely going to determine your experience. Leave your ego and prejudices at home, and just go with the flow and have a good time. It seems to be his second RD2L season, but he does still kind of have a new and unopened, still in-the-original-packaging, feel.

Which is what I like. When I’m captaining, I like players who won’t be in my way. Most of the time, new RD2L players will have the “first time at this party” attitude. Whatever your ability is, let me figure out how to use you. Whether you’re a jungle-only player or a techies spammer, that’s fine.

Hivemind rating: 7/10. We won’t be on the same page the first time I say something, but by the third or fourth time it will work. If we kept playing together the hivemind link would only keep improving.

I’ve been trying to play RD2L with Ark for years, and he finally said yes :). If you could just play rd2l with people you like, what more do you need really? I still wish he didn’t climb to an all-time high badge two days before the draft, and then lose it again right after the draft. REEE.

Ark can play almost everything, go ahead try banning him out guys 🙂

Hivemind rating: 9/10. We’re almost always on the same page, but Ark has more tendency to be influenced by external factors, instead of doing the influencing. He’ll often just go with whatever the teammates are doing. It fits his character, and I wouldn’t ask him to change. If we ever are not on the same page, it’s usually due to a difference in perception/information, and not due to core programming.

Xshal52 stood in for me last season, and Gachi wanted me to pick him this season. Finite likes him too, and Finite doesn’t like that many people. So really, this pick was fated. It’s interesting how different everyone on this team is, personality-wise. Xshal is definitely more of an action-gamer than I am. Frequently after our dota sessions, he would go unwind by playing a shooter. I’ll give another example. If I ask Sanchez what he can play, he can’t play anything. If I ask Xshal what he can play, he can play almost everything.

So our team ended up like a family wherein everyone is way different 🙂

Hivemind rating: 3/10. On a micro level during fights, Xshal is generally on point. Things like Naga sleep coordination cannot be pinned on him. On a macro level, the hivemind link hasn’t really connected.

GSKW and I are quite complementary picks in RD2L. He’s a value carry at low-divine, which is just what I require. I also suspect that he does better on a team where someone else can be the bully, directing things–which I can do. He’s quite a flexible player too, a quality which I find invaluable in players. He’s also pretty mentally and emotionally stable. (Who wants to play with the emotionally unstable, toxic people…)

Basically, what I’m saying is, GSKW ticks all the boxes.

Hivemind rating: 6/10. We don’t play dota quite the same way. This isn’t meant as a flame, but I think our team would do better if GSKW would defer macro-level decisions to me. This isn’t to say I’m right or my way of playing is better. If he were playing with Ultra or Waifu, he should defer macro-decisions to them. I just think that by increasing the hivemind value of whatever team he’s on, he would unlock higher potential.

Part of it is that I’m not always clear in what I want, which Gachi has helped point out. I’ll say things like “don’t chase too much” instead of “get back”, for example. In real life, euphemism and tact is the way of the world. But in battle, clear instruction is better. I need to reprogram myself.

Group results:

In the third round, Midwest forfeited to New England, and Eastern Canada defeated Pacific Northwest, 2-1 (https://www.dotabuff.com/matches/5276899498, https://www.dotabuff.com/matches/5277009971, https://www.dotabuff.com/matches/5276962455)

The playoffs will be a 4-team single elimination, with the same match format.

Gulf Coast vs. New England
Texas vs. Eastern Canada

Please ticket these matches. I’ll try to organize a community streamer for the final. Captains please inform me of the scheduled match times.

Roster link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1e4880X4uJLlSqq1BaMxxA7H9D0IOI_ZN4grVjDY9eJQ/edit#gid=959401315

I don’t feel like looking at all the teams, so I’ll just talk about my matches and opponents.

Week 1 – Dartboard Draft (2-6)
Team Name: 1/10. Recycling names is frowned upon, and this one is non-recyclable too.

We went 1-1 against them, and they’re now 2-6. I still don’t quite know how to counter treant-veno. I personally always liked that combo myself and picked it a lot in in-houses years ago (around when earth spirit was OP). I still think my Timber-Medusa draft is theoretically acceptable, it’s just a matter of “these heroes aren’t that good right now, and those are.” In hindsight, I think lifestealer match-ups have completely changed since his rework, and maybe that would’ve been a good try too. Maybe Burrahobbit is right and the answer to everything is always just Death Prophet.

This team has a lot of mmr but isn’t doing well. I’m taking this as supporting evidence of the inaccuracies of mmr this season.

Week 2 – Team Snek (5-3)
Team Name: 5/10, an extra point given for the logo. The name is a little plebeian, but it passes. There might be some inside joke I’m not privy to.

Another tri-divine team, with good players. They look solid on paper, and they have solid results. One of their members streamed our match, and I casually listened to the audio of the game we won (there wasn’t a lot to watch, because this player doesn’t look around much :)). During the game, and immediately afterward, I was surprised by polo’s positioning and feeding, because I had an image of him as a somewhat stable player. Listening to the stream, it became clear: he was under directions 🙂

I’m sure polo is a fine lad. I slightly admire, from a distance, able people who can humble themselves and follow others, who may be wrong. From a young age, this was against my own programming. Polo is probably a hufflepuff? (https://www.wizardingworld.com/)

Week 3 – Sports Anime Protagonists (4-4)
Team Name: 7/10. Tag yourself.

Losing game one was a little sad for me, as I rarely win mid like this these days. Some people have an image of me as an able drafter, and I agree with that in general, but truth be told I’m not too happy with my drafting this season. Of course, I’m not playing dota that much anymore. I will continue counterfactual regret minimizing.

Everyone on this team is probably valuable, or at least not anti-value.

Week 4 – Staylin Gulag (4-4)
Team Name: 7/10. From their display pics, you’d think this team were a bunch of donkeys.

….which they still might be, + staylin %)
Not happy with losing to naga, I decided to play it myself. I’ve been wanting to pull out a mag all season, and xshal wanted to try it on support, so it came out game 2. Then we got omni’d, which has no counters. And I let 4leks play DP, which he is apparently known for, and brain-farted and didn’t ban drow.

Honestly, I don’t think banning staylin heroes is correct. I think against this team you need to ban the team. You need to ban their strategies.

___

So far this season, I’ve somewhat abrogated my rights and duties as captain. This is partly out of lack of confidence (I’m not that close to dota right now), and partly out of an evasion of responsibility. However, I still don’t feel comfortable blaming my woes on other people. So if I’m going to take responsibility for what happens, I might as well exercise my tyranny too.

I may miss week 5, unless I reschedule, which I probably won’t. So my team can enjoy a week without me, and we’ll make a final turn into the homestretch when I’m back. It’s kind of suspenseful to be a middling team.

不怕不識貨，就怕貨比貨

Don’t take it too seriously. Half meme, modest effort. I wanted to rank eli last, but it would’ve been ridiculous.

The ranking is based on my personal experience, early season matches, player dotabuffs, and the general sense I get from how people are talking. In addition to raw mid-laning skill, it takes into account my judgment of how good players are at winning dota in an rd2l environment.

I had to guess for some players I don’t know. Don’t take it too seriously.

1	PIPI _::_:*	PIPI _::_:*
2	UltraGunner	UltraGunner
3	TheMantis	FlyingNightmare™
4	KOBE	涼太
5	waifu	waifu
6	Grace	Grace
7	BoX	BoX
8	CRAP	deadprez
9	Gracious Papi	Joric
10	Fulcrum	fierysnake
11	Inquisitor	Hexy
12	Not Detected xD	Not Detected xD
13	JonSquid	Lemonardo
14	Glotch	Elidoto2
15	BorisGump	ChowMains
16	キZend	Lyk0sTv
17	♂K[A]livunkka♂	.4leks…
18	DoomCow33	DoomCow33
19	fc	ButteryGreg
20	MGHappyhobo	Anaheim
21	Jotatoe	Jotatoe
22	Zoompa	Detective Diglett
23	Predict	Predict

The outcome of a match can either be 2-0, 1-1, or 0-2. Let’s assume each possibility is equally likely.

Suppose someone predicts 1-1 for a match. If you score 1 point for each correct game, this predictor will get either 1 or 2 points. But on average, he will get (1 + 2 + 1) / 3 = 1.33 points.

Suppose someone predicts 2-0 for a match. He will get 2, 1, or 0 points. But on average, he will get 1 point.

So a 1-1 prediction always gets at least a point, and scores better on average. In order to account for this imbalance, I propose a correct 2-0 prediction scores 3 points instead of 2.

**

Addendum:

Assuming each outcome is equally likely may not be a fair assumption, though. If teams are equally likely to win a game, it should be 1-1 50% of the time.

This means a 1-1 prediction will score on average (.25 * 1 + .5 * 2 + .25 * 1) = 1.5

A 2-0 prediction will score on average (.25 * 2 + .5 * 1 + .25 * 0 ) = 1

In order to compensate, a correct 2-0 would have to score 4 points!

For my team and friends.

1. Ward along the battle lines

Imagine a line connecting the three locations the creep waves are meeting. As a rule of thumb, you can ward along that line, more or less.

In a winning game, if your lanes are pushed up and you have a lot of space, it makes little sense to have defensive wards in your own jungle. In a losing game where you are stuck in your base, wards planted in your opponent’s base would be next to worthless.

2. Ward where you’re playing

Drop vision where you are playing, or plan on playing soon. In general, try to avoid going on adventures solely for warding: a) there is a large opportunity cost in the time it takes, and b) there is more danger; instead, place wards while you move on the map for natural, strategic reasons. If you happen to be smoking, that’s a great time to place wards.

By the way, “play where your vision is,” is ass-backward. If you need to avoid your enemy, but you see them in your vision, are you going to play where your vision is? If you have only crappy vision, are you going to play where your vision is? Your movements should be dictated by strategy.

3. Ward on time

If you keep up the good vision, all your decisions become cleaner. You may also notice your opponent placing their late wards. It’s usually not necessary to cross the river to place wards, unless you were crossing the river anyway. Just drop them on your side.

4. Central wards are better. They have higher traffic.

Behind tier-one wards are often only useful if there is a fight. In general, try to ward more centrally.

5. Try to avoid common de-wards.

If you want the ward to last, try to avoid common sentry spots. If you have a good ward that hasn’t been found, it’s okay to refresh it with a new one before the duration runs out.

This is getting too long. Hope this helps.

It’s well documented that shorter gaming handles correlate with higher skill. I consider this observation self-evident and will not provide any supporting examples.

I used the names on the draft sheet to create a team power ranking. The fewer number of characters, the higher the rank.

1	fc	21
2	KOBE	24
3	CRAP	27
4	BoX	33
5	Jotatoe	35
6	Inquisitor	35
7	BorisGump	38
8	キZend	41
9	WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW	42
10	♂K[A]livunkka♂	43
11	Predict	43
12	MGHappyhobo	44
13	Not Detected xD	44
14	Gracious Papi	45
15	Glotch	50
16	DoomCow33	52
17	UltraGunner	53
18	PIPI	54
19	Nabby	55
20	JonSquid	61
21	Fulcrum	61
22	Grace	66
23	TheMantis	66

I would like to be included in week 0 ranking collections, even though my ranking was done unconventionally. I expect my ranking to perform at least averagely.